Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOregon Senate Election Winner
Oregon Senate Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$1,757 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican
$1,035 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,792วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,792วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย