Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs GERB-SDS for second place in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities exceeding 96%, driven by consistent recent polls showing the center-right alliance at 19-21%—trailing leader Progressive Bulgaria (PB, ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment grouping) at 32-37% but well ahead of third-place challengers PP–DB (11-13%) and DPS (8-11%). April 14 surveys from CAM and Market LINKS confirm this stable gap amid intensified anti-vote-buying enforcement, with no major shifts in the campaign's final week under proportional representation rules requiring a 4% threshold. While coalition negotiations loom post-vote, a late surge by PP–DB, DPS fragmentation, or turnout swings in undecided voters could challenge GERB-SDS, though polls suggest formidable barriers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBulgaristan Parlamento Seçimi: 2. Sıra
Bulgaristan Parlamento Seçimi: 2. Sıra
GERB-SDS 96.2%
PB 2.5%
PP–DB 1.8%
DPS <1%
$58,986 Hac.
$58,986 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
GERB-SDS
96%
PB
3%
PP–DB
2%
DPS
<1%
Velichie
<1%
Vazrazhdane
<1%
BSP
<1%
İTAN
<1%
APS
<1%
MECh
<1%
GERB-SDS 96.2%
PB 2.5%
PP–DB 1.8%
DPS <1%
$58,986 Hac.
$58,986 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
GERB-SDS
$25,235 Hac.
96%
PB
$8,469 Hac.
3%
PP–DB
$8,283 Hac.
2%
DPS
$1,604 Hac.
<1%
Velichie
$2,145 Hac.
<1%
Vazrazhdane
$2,132 Hac.
<1%
BSP
$2,002 Hac.
<1%
İTAN
$2,145 Hac.
<1%
APS
$3,977 Hac.
<1%
MECh
$2,992 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs GERB-SDS for second place in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities exceeding 96%, driven by consistent recent polls showing the center-right alliance at 19-21%—trailing leader Progressive Bulgaria (PB, ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment grouping) at 32-37% but well ahead of third-place challengers PP–DB (11-13%) and DPS (8-11%). April 14 surveys from CAM and Market LINKS confirm this stable gap amid intensified anti-vote-buying enforcement, with no major shifts in the campaign's final week under proportional representation rules requiring a 4% threshold. While coalition negotiations loom post-vote, a late surge by PP–DB, DPS fragmentation, or turnout swings in undecided voters could challenge GERB-SDS, though polls suggest formidable barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 27, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Hacim
$58,986Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 27, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs GERB-SDS for second place in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities exceeding 96%, driven by consistent recent polls showing the center-right alliance at 19-21%—trailing leader Progressive Bulgaria (PB, ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment grouping) at 32-37% but well ahead of third-place challengers PP–DB (11-13%) and DPS (8-11%). April 14 surveys from CAM and Market LINKS confirm this stable gap amid intensified anti-vote-buying enforcement, with no major shifts in the campaign's final week under proportional representation rules requiring a 4% threshold. While coalition negotiations loom post-vote, a late surge by PP–DB, DPS fragmentation, or turnout swings in undecided voters could challenge GERB-SDS, though polls suggest formidable barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Hacim
$58,986Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 27, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs GERB-SDS for second place in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities exceeding 96%, driven by consistent recent polls showing the center-right alliance at 19-21%—trailing leader Progressive Bulgaria (PB, ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment grouping) at 32-37% but well ahead of third-place challengers PP–DB (11-13%) and DPS (8-11%). April 14 surveys from CAM and Market LINKS confirm this stable gap amid intensified anti-vote-buying enforcement, with no major shifts in the campaign's final week under proportional representation rules requiring a 4% threshold. While coalition negotiations loom post-vote, a late surge by PP–DB, DPS fragmentation, or turnout swings in undecided voters could challenge GERB-SDS, though polls suggest formidable barriers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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