Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
40–43 49.7%
36–39 27.4%
28–31 12%
44+ 6.9%
$55,288 Hac.
$55,288 Hac.
31 Ağu 2026
<24
4%
24–27
2%
28–31
12%
32–35
6%
36–39
24%
40–43
50%
44+
11%
40–43 49.7%
36–39 27.4%
28–31 12%
44+ 6.9%
$55,288 Hac.
$55,288 Hac.
31 Ağu 2026
<24
$3,590 Hac.
4%
24–27
$18,766 Hac.
2%
28–31
$21,374 Hac.
12%
32–35
$4,491 Hac.
6%
36–39
$2,468 Hac.
24%
40–43
$2,077 Hac.
50%
44+
$2,522 Hac.
11%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Hacim
$55,288Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ağu 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$55,288Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ağu 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 at 49.5%, reflecting trackers showing 43 as of April 14 amid a record retirement wave—the highest GOP House exits since the 1930s. Recent catalysts include Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales' April 14 resignation announcement, Transportation Chair Sam Graves' March 27 retirement, Darrell Issa's March 6 exit, and earlier March departures by Burgess Owens and Ryan Zinke, with many pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids. This surge, surpassing 36 by early April per Ballotpedia, strains the GOP's slim House majority defense in battleground districts, though traders see limited upside to 44+ given historical midterms patterns and primary filing deadlines approaching in key states.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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