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Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

IA-02 House Election Winner

Market icon
Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

IA-02 House Election Winner

YENİ
Polymarket
YENİ

Democratic Party

$339 Hac.

56%

Republican Party

$225 Hac.

37%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open Iowa 2nd Congressional District seat, following Rep. Ashley Hinson's departure for a U.S. Senate bid, has boosted Democratic prospects in this battleground encompassing Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 55.5% implied probability versus Republicans at 37%. Recent April 17 fundraising reports highlight Democrats' financial edges in key Iowa House races, amid former state Rep. Joe Mitchell's frontrunner status in the GOP primary with national "MAGA Majority" backing. No public polls exist ahead of June 2 primaries, leaving odds sensitive to nominee strength, midterm turnout dynamics favoring the opposition party, and local swing voter priorities in this historically competitive district.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$564
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open Iowa 2nd Congressional District seat, following Rep. Ashley Hinson's departure for a U.S. Senate bid, has boosted Democratic prospects in this battleground encompassing Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 55.5% implied probability versus Republicans at 37%. Recent April 17 fundraising reports highlight Democrats' financial edges in key Iowa House races, amid former state Rep. Joe Mitchell's frontrunner status in the GOP primary with national "MAGA Majority" backing. No public polls exist ahead of June 2 primaries, leaving odds sensitive to nominee strength, midterm turnout dynamics favoring the opposition party, and local swing voter priorities in this historically competitive district.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$564
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"IA-02 House Election Winner", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 2 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 56% ile "Democratic Party", ardından 37% ile "Republican Party" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 56¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 56% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

"IA-02 House Election Winner" Polymarket'te yeni oluşturulmuş bir piyasadır, Jan 28, 2026 tarihinde açıldı. Erken bir piyasa olarak, ilk yatırımcılar arasında yer alarak oranları belirleme ve piyasanın ilk fiyat sinyallerini oluşturma fırsatına sahipsiniz. Ayrıca piyasa zaman içinde ilgi kazandıkça hacmi ve işlem aktivitesini takip etmek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyebilirsiniz.

"IA-02 House Election Winner" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 2 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"IA-02 House Election Winner" için mevcut favori 56% ile "Democratic Party"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 56% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 37% ile "Republican Party"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"IA-02 House Election Winner" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.