A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US, backed by Israel and announced on April 8, has fueled cautious trader optimism but faces immediate tests from ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, as detailed in reports through April 13, and Iran's defiant refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US deadline. Tehran has condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon as violations, while sporadic Iranian missile launches at Israel persist, underscoring persistent escalation risks via proxies like Hezbollah. With the truce expiring around April 22 and US-Iran peace talks pending, traders weigh diplomatic progress against economic pressures on Iran, including sanctions and oil disruptions, as key factors in prolonging hostilities absent major de-escalation signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$42,235,061 Hac.
15 May 2026
7 Nisan
87%
15 Nisan
87%
30 Nisan
87%
15 Mayıs
91%
30 Haziran
92%
31 Aralık
97%
$42,235,061 Hac.
7 Nisan
$15,224,743 Hac.
87%
15 Nisan
$8,985,823 Hac.
87%
30 Nisan
$3,882,806 Hac.
87%
15 Mayıs
$3,414,175 Hac.
91%
30 Haziran
$2,860,848 Hac.
92%
31 Aralık
$2,720,770 Hac.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US, backed by Israel and announced on April 8, has fueled cautious trader optimism but faces immediate tests from ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, as detailed in reports through April 13, and Iran's defiant refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US deadline. Tehran has condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon as violations, while sporadic Iranian missile launches at Israel persist, underscoring persistent escalation risks via proxies like Hezbollah. With the truce expiring around April 22 and US-Iran peace talks pending, traders weigh diplomatic progress against economic pressures on Iran, including sanctions and oil disruptions, as key factors in prolonging hostilities absent major de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Hacim
$42,235,061Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US, backed by Israel and announced on April 8, has fueled cautious trader optimism but faces immediate tests from ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, as detailed in reports through April 13, and Iran's defiant refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US deadline. Tehran has condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon as violations, while sporadic Iranian missile launches at Israel persist, underscoring persistent escalation risks via proxies like Hezbollah. With the truce expiring around April 22 and US-Iran peace talks pending, traders weigh diplomatic progress against economic pressures on Iran, including sanctions and oil disruptions, as key factors in prolonging hostilities absent major de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Hacim
$42,235,061Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US, backed by Israel and announced on April 8, has fueled cautious trader optimism but faces immediate tests from ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, as detailed in reports through April 13, and Iran's defiant refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US deadline. Tehran has condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon as violations, while sporadic Iranian missile launches at Israel persist, underscoring persistent escalation risks via proxies like Hezbollah. With the truce expiring around April 22 and US-Iran peace talks pending, traders weigh diplomatic progress against economic pressures on Iran, including sanctions and oil disruptions, as key factors in prolonging hostilities absent major de-escalation signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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