A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİsrail'in İran'a karşı askeri harekatı...?
İsrail'in İran'a karşı askeri harekatı...?
$1,550,552 Hac.
21 Nis 2026
14 Nisan
1%
21 Nisan
12%
$1,550,552 Hac.
14 Nisan
$1,107,741 Hac.
1%
21 Nisan
$442,811 Hac.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Hacim
$1,550,552Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Hacim
$1,550,552Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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