Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong positioning as the heavy favorite at 77% trader consensus reflects Kansas' deep-red electoral history, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, and his unchallenged incumbency advantage in a midterm cycle favoring the GOP base. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and completed a statewide tour in late February touting tax cuts, maintaining high visibility without facing a marquee Democratic opponent amid a crowded primary field of eight lesser-known challengers. A outlier January poll released April 17 showing independent Adam Hamilton leading 51-49—dropping to a 54-46 Marshall edge if Hamilton runs as a Democrat—has failed to shift odds, underscoring traders' skepticism of early, low-sample surveys in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, with August primaries looming as the next catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKansas Senatosu Seçim Galibi
Kansas Senatosu Seçim Galibi
$17,486 Hac.
$17,486 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Cumhuriyetçi
77%
Demokrat
19%
$17,486 Hac.
$17,486 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Cumhuriyetçi
$9,451 Hac.
77%
Demokrat
$8,035 Hac.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong positioning as the heavy favorite at 77% trader consensus reflects Kansas' deep-red electoral history, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, and his unchallenged incumbency advantage in a midterm cycle favoring the GOP base. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and completed a statewide tour in late February touting tax cuts, maintaining high visibility without facing a marquee Democratic opponent amid a crowded primary field of eight lesser-known challengers. A outlier January poll released April 17 showing independent Adam Hamilton leading 51-49—dropping to a 54-46 Marshall edge if Hamilton runs as a Democrat—has failed to shift odds, underscoring traders' skepticism of early, low-sample surveys in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, with August primaries looming as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Hacim
$17,486Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong positioning as the heavy favorite at 77% trader consensus reflects Kansas' deep-red electoral history, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, and his unchallenged incumbency advantage in a midterm cycle favoring the GOP base. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and completed a statewide tour in late February touting tax cuts, maintaining high visibility without facing a marquee Democratic opponent amid a crowded primary field of eight lesser-known challengers. A outlier January poll released April 17 showing independent Adam Hamilton leading 51-49—dropping to a 54-46 Marshall edge if Hamilton runs as a Democrat—has failed to shift odds, underscoring traders' skepticism of early, low-sample surveys in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, with August primaries looming as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Hacim
$17,486Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong positioning as the heavy favorite at 77% trader consensus reflects Kansas' deep-red electoral history, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, and his unchallenged incumbency advantage in a midterm cycle favoring the GOP base. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and completed a statewide tour in late February touting tax cuts, maintaining high visibility without facing a marquee Democratic opponent amid a crowded primary field of eight lesser-known challengers. A outlier January poll released April 17 showing independent Adam Hamilton leading 51-49—dropping to a 54-46 Marshall edge if Hamilton runs as a Democrat—has failed to shift odds, underscoring traders' skepticism of early, low-sample surveys in this safe Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, with August primaries looming as the next catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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