Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's specific resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) making US landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, USGS-measured 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike. None have occurred through mid-April, despite recent Super Typhoon Sinlaku devastating the Northern Mariana Islands with emergency declarations but failing criteria as a western Pacific system. USGS seismic data shows no 8.5+ events, global volcano monitoring reports no VEI 6 activity, and NASA near-Earth object tracking confirms no major impacts. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1 amid a forecasted El Niño transition (NOAA, 61% chance by May), model consensus anticipates average activity without elevated Cat 5 US landfall odds; upcoming NHC outlooks and USGS updates could shift sentiment.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
Evet
$204,457 Hac.
$204,457 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$204,457 Hac.
$204,457 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's specific resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) making US landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, USGS-measured 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike. None have occurred through mid-April, despite recent Super Typhoon Sinlaku devastating the Northern Mariana Islands with emergency declarations but failing criteria as a western Pacific system. USGS seismic data shows no 8.5+ events, global volcano monitoring reports no VEI 6 activity, and NASA near-Earth object tracking confirms no major impacts. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1 amid a forecasted El Niño transition (NOAA, 61% chance by May), model consensus anticipates average activity without elevated Cat 5 US landfall odds; upcoming NHC outlooks and USGS updates could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Hacim
$204,457Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's specific resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) making US landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, USGS-measured 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike. None have occurred through mid-April, despite recent Super Typhoon Sinlaku devastating the Northern Mariana Islands with emergency declarations but failing criteria as a western Pacific system. USGS seismic data shows no 8.5+ events, global volcano monitoring reports no VEI 6 activity, and NASA near-Earth object tracking confirms no major impacts. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1 amid a forecasted El Niño transition (NOAA, 61% chance by May), model consensus anticipates average activity without elevated Cat 5 US landfall odds; upcoming NHC outlooks and USGS updates could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Hacim
$204,457Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's specific resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) making US landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, USGS-measured 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike. None have occurred through mid-April, despite recent Super Typhoon Sinlaku devastating the Northern Mariana Islands with emergency declarations but failing criteria as a western Pacific system. USGS seismic data shows no 8.5+ events, global volcano monitoring reports no VEI 6 activity, and NASA near-Earth object tracking confirms no major impacts. With Atlantic hurricane season opening June 1 amid a forecasted El Niño transition (NOAA, 61% chance by May), model consensus anticipates average activity without elevated Cat 5 US landfall odds; upcoming NHC outlooks and USGS updates could shift sentiment.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular