Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD 2027 'ye kadar borçlarını ödeyemeyecek mi?
ABD 2027 'ye kadar borçlarını ödeyemeyecek mi?
Evet
$14,748 Hac.
$14,748 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$14,748 Hac.
$14,748 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Hacim
$14,748Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Hacim
$14,748Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certain avoidance of a US debt default by 2027 at 95.5% implied probability for "No," anchored in Congress's unbroken history of raising the debt ceiling over 100 times amid fiscal brinkmanship, preserving the nation's perfect credit record. The recent partial government shutdown—the longest on record—over Homeland Security funding disputes tied to immigration enforcement ended in early April 2026 via a Republican congressional deal, demonstrating routine resolution of appropriations fights separate from debt limit pressures. Treasury and CRFB projections indicate the limit won't bind until sometime in 2027, providing ample window despite CBO-forecast deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually. Realistic upset scenarios include post-midterms gridlock in 2026 blocking a continuing resolution or reconciliation bill, or extraordinary measures exhaustion coinciding with shutdown demands.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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