Recent direct US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, led by Vice President JD Vance, concluded after 21 hours without agreement on a permanent deal, as the two-week ceasefire brokered April 7 nears expiration around April 21. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's nuclear suspension—US proposing 20 years versus Iran's five-year counter—full sanctions relief, proxy militia curbs, and Strait of Hormuz access protocols. President Trump indicated a second round could resume within days via Pakistani mediation, amid optimism from White House officials despite deep divisions persisting since the US 15-point plan in March. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against historical mistrust and unresolved demands, with upcoming negotiations pivotal for any breakthrough before escalation risks rise.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
ABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
$7,692,379 Hac.
31 May 2026
22 Nisan
22%
30 Nisan
38%
31 Mayıs
60%
30 Haziran
73%
$7,692,379 Hac.
22 Nisan
$5,102,996 Hac.
22%
30 Nisan
$1,415,070 Hac.
38%
31 Mayıs
$945,552 Hac.
60%
30 Haziran
$229,973 Hac.
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent direct US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, led by Vice President JD Vance, concluded after 21 hours without agreement on a permanent deal, as the two-week ceasefire brokered April 7 nears expiration around April 21. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's nuclear suspension—US proposing 20 years versus Iran's five-year counter—full sanctions relief, proxy militia curbs, and Strait of Hormuz access protocols. President Trump indicated a second round could resume within days via Pakistani mediation, amid optimism from White House officials despite deep divisions persisting since the US 15-point plan in March. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against historical mistrust and unresolved demands, with upcoming negotiations pivotal for any breakthrough before escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Hacim
$7,692,379Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent direct US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, led by Vice President JD Vance, concluded after 21 hours without agreement on a permanent deal, as the two-week ceasefire brokered April 7 nears expiration around April 21. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's nuclear suspension—US proposing 20 years versus Iran's five-year counter—full sanctions relief, proxy militia curbs, and Strait of Hormuz access protocols. President Trump indicated a second round could resume within days via Pakistani mediation, amid optimism from White House officials despite deep divisions persisting since the US 15-point plan in March. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against historical mistrust and unresolved demands, with upcoming negotiations pivotal for any breakthrough before escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$7,692,379Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent direct US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, led by Vice President JD Vance, concluded after 21 hours without agreement on a permanent deal, as the two-week ceasefire brokered April 7 nears expiration around April 21. Key sticking points include the duration of Iran's nuclear suspension—US proposing 20 years versus Iran's five-year counter—full sanctions relief, proxy militia curbs, and Strait of Hormuz access protocols. President Trump indicated a second round could resume within days via Pakistani mediation, amid optimism from White House officials despite deep divisions persisting since the US 15-point plan in March. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against historical mistrust and unresolved demands, with upcoming negotiations pivotal for any breakthrough before escalation risks rise.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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