Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$320,982 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Any U.S. House member
9%
Marco Rubio
7%
JD Vance
7%
Any U.S. Senator
7%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Jared Kushner
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
2%
Donald Trump
2%
$320,982 Hac.
Any U.S. House member
$66,435 Hac.
9%
Marco Rubio
$16,252 Hac.
7%
JD Vance
$19,744 Hac.
7%
Any U.S. Senator
$24,587 Hac.
7%
Pete Hegseth
$80,491 Hac.
4%
Jared Kushner
$12,293 Hac.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$38,211 Hac.
2%
Donald Trump
$62,969 Hac.
2%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Hacim
$320,982Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$320,982Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war that began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military sites and assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low probabilities for named US figures or lawmakers entering Iran by June 30, driven by a shift to naval blockades and air operations rather than ground invasions. The US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz around April 13, with recent April 14 updates noting exemptions for humanitarian aid amid faltering ceasefire talks in Islamabad that ended without progress on April 12. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire on April 6 and threats to deploy one million troops against any ground escalation underscore barriers to boots-on-the-ground scenarios, while disputed early-April US rescue missions for downed pilots highlight definitional ambiguities. Upcoming diplomatic efforts or Mossad signals on regime change could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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