Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 77.5% probability that at least one month in 2026 will surpass the current all-time global surface air temperature record, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 80% chance of neutral conditions through June followed by a 61% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July, persisting into late year—a pattern historically amplifying global heat, especially in boreal summer. Early 2026 months ranked highly, with March fourth-warmest per Copernicus ERA5 data (1.48°C above pre-industrial) and near-record sea surface temperatures, amid a relentless anthropogenic warming trend placing 2026 among the top-four hottest years on record. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, plus model updates, could refine these market-implied odds as El Niño risks materialize.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
Evet
$119,741 Hac.
$119,741 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
Evet
$119,741 Hac.
$119,741 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 77.5% probability that at least one month in 2026 will surpass the current all-time global surface air temperature record, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 80% chance of neutral conditions through June followed by a 61% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July, persisting into late year—a pattern historically amplifying global heat, especially in boreal summer. Early 2026 months ranked highly, with March fourth-warmest per Copernicus ERA5 data (1.48°C above pre-industrial) and near-record sea surface temperatures, amid a relentless anthropogenic warming trend placing 2026 among the top-four hottest years on record. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, plus model updates, could refine these market-implied odds as El Niño risks materialize.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Hacim
$119,741Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 77.5% probability that at least one month in 2026 will surpass the current all-time global surface air temperature record, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 80% chance of neutral conditions through June followed by a 61% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July, persisting into late year—a pattern historically amplifying global heat, especially in boreal summer. Early 2026 months ranked highly, with March fourth-warmest per Copernicus ERA5 data (1.48°C above pre-industrial) and near-record sea surface temperatures, amid a relentless anthropogenic warming trend placing 2026 among the top-four hottest years on record. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, plus model updates, could refine these market-implied odds as El Niño risks materialize.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$119,741Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 77.5% probability that at least one month in 2026 will surpass the current all-time global surface air temperature record, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 80% chance of neutral conditions through June followed by a 61% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July, persisting into late year—a pattern historically amplifying global heat, especially in boreal summer. Early 2026 months ranked highly, with March fourth-warmest per Copernicus ERA5 data (1.48°C above pre-industrial) and near-record sea surface temperatures, amid a relentless anthropogenic warming trend placing 2026 among the top-four hottest years on record. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus bulletins, plus model updates, could refine these market-implied odds as El Niño risks materialize.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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