The US military's precision operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife via Delta Force raid and airstrikes, marked the first such high-profile seizure of a head of state since Panama's Manuel Noriega in 1989, fulfilling initial expectations for 2026 but prompting traders to bet heavily against a second occurrence at 91% No. With Maduro now facing US prosecution in New York and focus shifting to Venezuelan stabilization, opposition transitions, and international reactions, no verifiable developments—such as special operations planning, sanctions escalations, or regime-change signals against figures like Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei—have emerged in the past three months to suggest another intervention. Geopolitical constraints, including alliances and military priorities in Ukraine and the Middle East, reinforce trader consensus on the rarity of these actions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
$47,731 Hac.
$47,731 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$47,731 Hac.
$47,731 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's precision operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife via Delta Force raid and airstrikes, marked the first such high-profile seizure of a head of state since Panama's Manuel Noriega in 1989, fulfilling initial expectations for 2026 but prompting traders to bet heavily against a second occurrence at 91% No. With Maduro now facing US prosecution in New York and focus shifting to Venezuelan stabilization, opposition transitions, and international reactions, no verifiable developments—such as special operations planning, sanctions escalations, or regime-change signals against figures like Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei—have emerged in the past three months to suggest another intervention. Geopolitical constraints, including alliances and military priorities in Ukraine and the Middle East, reinforce trader consensus on the rarity of these actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Hacim
$47,731Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's precision operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife via Delta Force raid and airstrikes, marked the first such high-profile seizure of a head of state since Panama's Manuel Noriega in 1989, fulfilling initial expectations for 2026 but prompting traders to bet heavily against a second occurrence at 91% No. With Maduro now facing US prosecution in New York and focus shifting to Venezuelan stabilization, opposition transitions, and international reactions, no verifiable developments—such as special operations planning, sanctions escalations, or regime-change signals against figures like Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei—have emerged in the past three months to suggest another intervention. Geopolitical constraints, including alliances and military priorities in Ukraine and the Middle East, reinforce trader consensus on the rarity of these actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$47,731Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's precision operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife via Delta Force raid and airstrikes, marked the first such high-profile seizure of a head of state since Panama's Manuel Noriega in 1989, fulfilling initial expectations for 2026 but prompting traders to bet heavily against a second occurrence at 91% No. With Maduro now facing US prosecution in New York and focus shifting to Venezuelan stabilization, opposition transitions, and international reactions, no verifiable developments—such as special operations planning, sanctions escalations, or regime-change signals against figures like Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei—have emerged in the past three months to suggest another intervention. Geopolitical constraints, including alliances and military priorities in Ukraine and the Middle East, reinforce trader consensus on the rarity of these actions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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