Trader consensus at 96.5% on "No" stems from the Department of Education's statutory creation requiring congressional action for full elimination, which has stalled despite the Trump administration's executive efforts to shrink it. Over the past year, President Trump issued orders in March 2025 to dismantle functions, transferring K-12 programs, school safety grants, and student aid oversight to other agencies, cutting staff by up to 50%, and relocating headquarters for cost savings. Recent April 2026 budget proposals seek $2.3 billion in cuts to pave an elimination path, but bipartisan congressional spending bills have preserved funding. Bills like H.R. 899 and S. 1148 to terminate by December 2026 remain unadvanced amid filibuster hurdles and midterm pressures. Only swift legislative passage via reconciliation could shift odds before January 2027.