Polymarket traders price an 82.5% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a persistent $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP—despite year-to-date improvements to $1.2 trillion through March, down $139 billion from FY2025. Recent Monthly Treasury Statements show March's $164 billion deficit underscoring ongoing structural pressures from tax cuts, elevated interest payments nearing $1 trillion annually, and Trump's FY2027 budget proposing a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion amid modest non-defense trims. Consensus anticipates no fiscal pivot before year-end, with full FY2026 data and debt ceiling dynamics as key catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 82.5% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a persistent $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP—despite year-to-date improvements to $1.2 trillion through March, down $139 billion from FY2025. Recent Monthly Treasury Statements show March's $164 billion deficit underscoring ongoing structural pressures from tax cuts, elevated interest payments nearing $1 trillion annually, and Trump's FY2027 budget proposing a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion amid modest non-defense trims. Consensus anticipates no fiscal pivot before year-end, with full FY2026 data and debt ceiling dynamics as key catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Hacim
$408Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 82.5% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a persistent $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP—despite year-to-date improvements to $1.2 trillion through March, down $139 billion from FY2025. Recent Monthly Treasury Statements show March's $164 billion deficit underscoring ongoing structural pressures from tax cuts, elevated interest payments nearing $1 trillion annually, and Trump's FY2027 budget proposing a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion amid modest non-defense trims. Consensus anticipates no fiscal pivot before year-end, with full FY2026 data and debt ceiling dynamics as key catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Hacim
$408Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 82.5% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a persistent $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP—despite year-to-date improvements to $1.2 trillion through March, down $139 billion from FY2025. Recent Monthly Treasury Statements show March's $164 billion deficit underscoring ongoing structural pressures from tax cuts, elevated interest payments nearing $1 trillion annually, and Trump's FY2027 budget proposing a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion amid modest non-defense trims. Consensus anticipates no fiscal pivot before year-end, with full FY2026 data and debt ceiling dynamics as key catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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