The market-implied 98.1% probability against Jerome Powell facing jail time before 2027 stems from the complete lack of criminal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against the Federal Reserve Chair as of August 2026. Powell's role overseeing monetary policy, including Fed funds rate decisions and inflation targeting, has generated policy debates but no legal exposure that would meet criminal thresholds under U.S. statutes. Institutional protections, Senate confirmation processes, and historical precedent for central bank officials further anchor trader consensus around continuity through the end of his term. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political targeting or fabricated proceedings, neither of which shows any supporting developments in regulatory filings or official channels.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market-implied 98.1% probability against Jerome Powell facing jail time before 2027 stems from the complete lack of criminal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against the Federal Reserve Chair as of August 2026. Powell's role overseeing monetary policy, including Fed funds rate decisions and inflation targeting, has generated policy debates but no legal exposure that would meet criminal thresholds under U.S. statutes. Institutional protections, Senate confirmation processes, and historical precedent for central bank officials further anchor trader consensus around continuity through the end of his term. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political targeting or fabricated proceedings, neither of which shows any supporting developments in regulatory filings or official channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,593Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market-implied 98.1% probability against Jerome Powell facing jail time before 2027 stems from the complete lack of criminal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against the Federal Reserve Chair as of August 2026. Powell's role overseeing monetary policy, including Fed funds rate decisions and inflation targeting, has generated policy debates but no legal exposure that would meet criminal thresholds under U.S. statutes. Institutional protections, Senate confirmation processes, and historical precedent for central bank officials further anchor trader consensus around continuity through the end of his term. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political targeting or fabricated proceedings, neither of which shows any supporting developments in regulatory filings or official channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,593Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 98.1% probability against Jerome Powell facing jail time before 2027 stems from the complete lack of criminal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against the Federal Reserve Chair as of August 2026. Powell's role overseeing monetary policy, including Fed funds rate decisions and inflation targeting, has generated policy debates but no legal exposure that would meet criminal thresholds under U.S. statutes. Institutional protections, Senate confirmation processes, and historical precedent for central bank officials further anchor trader consensus around continuity through the end of his term. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as unprecedented political targeting or fabricated proceedings, neither of which shows any supporting developments in regulatory filings or official channels.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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