Michael Katz's endorsement by the Delaware Republican Party has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in the September 15 primary, driving trader consensus toward his 80.5% implied probability. The former state senator's party backing in a two-candidate field with no incumbent provides a structural advantage ahead of the general election contest. John Shulli, an Army War College instructor with a military background, maintains a narrower path at 17% amid stronger early fundraising, yet lacks comparable institutional support. Limited polling and the primary's timing leave room for shifts based on further endorsements or voter outreach in the coming months.