Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin holds a commanding position in California's 49th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Voters approved Proposition 50 in late 2025, enacting new maps that shifted the coastal San Diego-Orange County seat leftward to a D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Levin advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican challengers, while fundraising data shows him with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to minimal resources for opponents like Armen Kurdian. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages from redistricting and incumbency, though outcomes could still shift due to unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican midterm performance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-49 House Election Winner
CA-49 House Election Winner
$20,824 KL.
$20,824 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$20,824 KL.
$20,824 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,297 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$1,527 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin holds a commanding position in California's 49th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Voters approved Proposition 50 in late 2025, enacting new maps that shifted the coastal San Diego-Orange County seat leftward to a D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Levin advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican challengers, while fundraising data shows him with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to minimal resources for opponents like Armen Kurdian. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages from redistricting and incumbency, though outcomes could still shift due to unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican midterm performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$20,824Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin holds a commanding position in California's 49th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Voters approved Proposition 50 in late 2025, enacting new maps that shifted the coastal San Diego-Orange County seat leftward to a D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Levin advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican challengers, while fundraising data shows him with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to minimal resources for opponents like Armen Kurdian. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages from redistricting and incumbency, though outcomes could still shift due to unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican midterm performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$20,824Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin holds a commanding position in California's 49th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Voters approved Proposition 50 in late 2025, enacting new maps that shifted the coastal San Diego-Orange County seat leftward to a D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Levin advanced easily through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican challengers, while fundraising data shows him with over $1.3 million cash on hand compared to minimal resources for opponents like Armen Kurdian. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages from redistricting and incumbency, though outcomes could still shift due to unforeseen developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican midterm performance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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