The open seat in New York's 21st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Elise Stefanik, remains a Solid Republican hold per Cook Political Report in this R+10 leaning district, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024. Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 70% implied probability, driven by strong GOP fundraising—Anthony Constantino's $3.5 million cash-on-hand leads the field—and historical dominance in this rural North Country battleground. Recent developments include candidates ramping up campaigns ahead of the June 23 closed primaries, New York Republican State Committee endorsement of Robert Smullen in March, and petition challenges against Constantino, heightening GOP primary competition while Democrats like well-funded Blake Gendebien trail in resources and district math. National generic ballot tightening adds minor uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$14,461 KL.
$14,461 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
71%
Democratic Party
25%
$14,461 KL.
$14,461 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,989 KL.
71%
Democratic Party
$4,472 KL.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York's 21st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Elise Stefanik, remains a Solid Republican hold per Cook Political Report in this R+10 leaning district, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024. Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 70% implied probability, driven by strong GOP fundraising—Anthony Constantino's $3.5 million cash-on-hand leads the field—and historical dominance in this rural North Country battleground. Recent developments include candidates ramping up campaigns ahead of the June 23 closed primaries, New York Republican State Committee endorsement of Robert Smullen in March, and petition challenges against Constantino, heightening GOP primary competition while Democrats like well-funded Blake Gendebien trail in resources and district math. National generic ballot tightening adds minor uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,461Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York's 21st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Elise Stefanik, remains a Solid Republican hold per Cook Political Report in this R+10 leaning district, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024. Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 70% implied probability, driven by strong GOP fundraising—Anthony Constantino's $3.5 million cash-on-hand leads the field—and historical dominance in this rural North Country battleground. Recent developments include candidates ramping up campaigns ahead of the June 23 closed primaries, New York Republican State Committee endorsement of Robert Smullen in March, and petition challenges against Constantino, heightening GOP primary competition while Democrats like well-funded Blake Gendebien trail in resources and district math. National generic ballot tightening adds minor uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$14,461Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in New York's 21st Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Elise Stefanik, remains a Solid Republican hold per Cook Political Report in this R+10 leaning district, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024. Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 70% implied probability, driven by strong GOP fundraising—Anthony Constantino's $3.5 million cash-on-hand leads the field—and historical dominance in this rural North Country battleground. Recent developments include candidates ramping up campaigns ahead of the June 23 closed primaries, New York Republican State Committee endorsement of Robert Smullen in March, and petition challenges against Constantino, heightening GOP primary competition while Democrats like well-funded Blake Gendebien trail in resources and district math. National generic ballot tightening adds minor uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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