Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's target Fed funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the current 3.50%-3.75% range amid resilient economic data and persistent inflation pressures. This strong consensus stems from the March 17-18 FOMC minutes released April 8, which flagged elevated consumer price inflation, rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% despite modest job gains. Governor Waller's April 17 speech reinforced labor market steadiness without substantial weakening. CME FedWatch Tool probabilities mirror this near-unanimity above 98%. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting hotter-than-expected data or escalating geopolitical risks, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of the May 12 April CPI release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed trong tháng 4?
Quyết định của Fed trong tháng 4?
Không thay đổi 99.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên <1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$107,711,255 KL.
$107,711,255 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Không thay đổi
99%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 99.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên <1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$107,711,255 KL.
$107,711,255 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$41,038,404 KL.
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$20,796,118 KL.
<1%
Không thay đổi
$21,098,905 KL.
99%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$24,779,499 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's target Fed funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the current 3.50%-3.75% range amid resilient economic data and persistent inflation pressures. This strong consensus stems from the March 17-18 FOMC minutes released April 8, which flagged elevated consumer price inflation, rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% despite modest job gains. Governor Waller's April 17 speech reinforced labor market steadiness without substantial weakening. CME FedWatch Tool probabilities mirror this near-unanimity above 98%. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting hotter-than-expected data or escalating geopolitical risks, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of the May 12 April CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$107,711,255Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's target Fed funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the current 3.50%-3.75% range amid resilient economic data and persistent inflation pressures. This strong consensus stems from the March 17-18 FOMC minutes released April 8, which flagged elevated consumer price inflation, rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% despite modest job gains. Governor Waller's April 17 speech reinforced labor market steadiness without substantial weakening. CME FedWatch Tool probabilities mirror this near-unanimity above 98%. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting hotter-than-expected data or escalating geopolitical risks, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of the May 12 April CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$107,711,255Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's target Fed funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the current 3.50%-3.75% range amid resilient economic data and persistent inflation pressures. This strong consensus stems from the March 17-18 FOMC minutes released April 8, which flagged elevated consumer price inflation, rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% despite modest job gains. Governor Waller's April 17 speech reinforced labor market steadiness without substantial weakening. CME FedWatch Tool probabilities mirror this near-unanimity above 98%. Realistic challenges include pre-meeting hotter-than-expected data or escalating geopolitical risks, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of the May 12 April CPI release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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