**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps increase 61%
No change 37%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$856,821 KL.
$856,821 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
37%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
No change 37%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$856,821 KL.
$856,821 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$136,991 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$194,431 KL.
4%
No change
$177,975 KL.
37%
25 bps increase
$216,895 KL.
61%
50+ bps increase
$130,528 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$856,821Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$856,821Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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