Recent FOMC actions and incoming data have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent in both June and July, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike amid headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year in July. Softer July employment data showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and unemployment at 4.1 percent have tempered immediate tightening pressure, while elevated energy prices and core inflation near 2.5 percent keep the policy path uncertain. This backdrop supports the 69.5 percent market-implied probability of consecutive pauses, with the 28.5 percent “Other” share reflecting residual hawkish risks ahead of the September meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 69%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$746,935 KL.
$746,935 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
29%
Pause–Pause–Pause 69%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$746,935 KL.
$746,935 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$291,316 KL.
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$77,301 KL.
<1%
Other
$322,441 KL.
29%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC actions and incoming data have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent in both June and July, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike amid headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year in July. Softer July employment data showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and unemployment at 4.1 percent have tempered immediate tightening pressure, while elevated energy prices and core inflation near 2.5 percent keep the policy path uncertain. This backdrop supports the 69.5 percent market-implied probability of consecutive pauses, with the 28.5 percent “Other” share reflecting residual hawkish risks ahead of the September meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$746,935Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC actions and incoming data have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent in both June and July, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike amid headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year in July. Softer July employment data showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and unemployment at 4.1 percent have tempered immediate tightening pressure, while elevated energy prices and core inflation near 2.5 percent keep the policy path uncertain. This backdrop supports the 69.5 percent market-implied probability of consecutive pauses, with the 28.5 percent “Other” share reflecting residual hawkish risks ahead of the September meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$746,935Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC actions and incoming data have anchored trader expectations for no rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 meetings. The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent in both June and July, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike amid headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year in July. Softer July employment data showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and unemployment at 4.1 percent have tempered immediate tightening pressure, while elevated energy prices and core inflation near 2.5 percent keep the policy path uncertain. This backdrop supports the 69.5 percent market-implied probability of consecutive pauses, with the 28.5 percent “Other” share reflecting residual hawkish risks ahead of the September meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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