**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy pivot have driven trader consensus toward "Other" outcomes in the June-September 2026 FOMC sequence.** Elevated PCE and CPI readings—headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% year-over-year through mid-2026 amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions—prompted the Fed to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July while removing easing bias language. The June dot plot lifted the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike. Labor market data remained resilient, with August unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, reducing the urgency for cuts. As the September 16 meeting approaches with market-implied odds favoring a possible 25-basis-point hike, the low 11.5% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero odds on any cut sequence reflect trader pricing of tighter policy to combat sticky inflation rather than continued pauses or easing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$877,963 KL.
$877,963 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
88%
Other 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$877,963 KL.
$877,963 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$342,000 KL.
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$104,193 KL.
<1%
Other
$375,894 KL.
88%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy pivot have driven trader consensus toward "Other" outcomes in the June-September 2026 FOMC sequence.**
Elevated PCE and CPI readings—headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% year-over-year through mid-2026 amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions—prompted the Fed to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July while removing easing bias language. The June dot plot lifted the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike. Labor market data remained resilient, with August unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, reducing the urgency for cuts.
As the September 16 meeting approaches with market-implied odds favoring a possible 25-basis-point hike, the low 11.5% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero odds on any cut sequence reflect trader pricing of tighter policy to combat sticky inflation rather than continued pauses or easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$877,963Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy pivot have driven trader consensus toward "Other" outcomes in the June-September 2026 FOMC sequence.**
Elevated PCE and CPI readings—headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% year-over-year through mid-2026 amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions—prompted the Fed to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July while removing easing bias language. The June dot plot lifted the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike. Labor market data remained resilient, with August unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, reducing the urgency for cuts.
As the September 16 meeting approaches with market-implied odds favoring a possible 25-basis-point hike, the low 11.5% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero odds on any cut sequence reflect trader pricing of tighter policy to combat sticky inflation rather than continued pauses or easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$877,963Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy pivot have driven trader consensus toward "Other" outcomes in the June-September 2026 FOMC sequence.** Elevated PCE and CPI readings—headline inflation near 3.4-4.2% year-over-year through mid-2026 amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions—prompted the Fed to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July while removing easing bias language. The June dot plot lifted the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike. Labor market data remained resilient, with August unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, reducing the urgency for cuts. As the September 16 meeting approaches with market-implied odds favoring a possible 25-basis-point hike, the low 11.5% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause and near-zero odds on any cut sequence reflect trader pricing of tighter policy to combat sticky inflation rather than continued pauses or easing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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