Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 10 under mostly sunny conditions, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 36–37°C. Madrid's continental climate produces typical early-August maxima near 32–34°C, with potential for brief spikes from strong insolation and light winds, though no major heatwave or anomalous ridge is projected in the latest runs. Traders appear to weight ensemble consensus and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning the highest odds to these thresholds, while lower probabilities for 38°C or above reflect limited signals for further intensification. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
37°C 44%
36°C 28%
38°C 16%
35°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
6%
36°C
28%
37°C
44%
38°C
16%
39°C
2%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 44%
36°C 28%
38°C 16%
35°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
$77 KL.
<1%
32°C
$34 KL.
<1%
33°C
$19 KL.
1%
34°C
$50 KL.
2%
35°C
$180 KL.
6%
36°C
$1,613 KL.
28%
37°C
$1,782 KL.
44%
38°C
$547 KL.
16%
39°C
$197 KL.
2%
40°C
$249 KL.
1%
41°C or higher
$45 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 10 under mostly sunny conditions, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 36–37°C. Madrid's continental climate produces typical early-August maxima near 32–34°C, with potential for brief spikes from strong insolation and light winds, though no major heatwave or anomalous ridge is projected in the latest runs. Traders appear to weight ensemble consensus and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning the highest odds to these thresholds, while lower probabilities for 38°C or above reflect limited signals for further intensification. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,792Ngày kết thúc
Aug 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 10 under mostly sunny conditions, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 36–37°C. Madrid's continental climate produces typical early-August maxima near 32–34°C, with potential for brief spikes from strong insolation and light winds, though no major heatwave or anomalous ridge is projected in the latest runs. Traders appear to weight ensemble consensus and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning the highest odds to these thresholds, while lower probabilities for 38°C or above reflect limited signals for further intensification. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,792Ngày kết thúc
Aug 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the Met Office indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 10 under mostly sunny conditions, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 36–37°C. Madrid's continental climate produces typical early-August maxima near 32–34°C, with potential for brief spikes from strong insolation and light winds, though no major heatwave or anomalous ridge is projected in the latest runs. Traders appear to weight ensemble consensus and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning the highest odds to these thresholds, while lower probabilities for 38°C or above reflect limited signals for further intensification. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp