Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF guidance, shows a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe sustaining clear skies and light winds ahead of August 12, favoring maximum surface heating near 34–36 °C in the Paris region. Urban heat-island effects and soil moisture deficits from the preceding early-August warmth further support these values. Ensemble spreads place the highest probability on 35 °C, with lower odds on 36 °C or above reflecting slight model disagreement on peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and Météo-France vigilance briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 16%
33°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
8%
34°C
26%
35°C
49%
36°C
16%
37°C
3%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 16%
33°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$1,448 KL.
<1%
30°C
$33 KL.
<1%
31°C
$437 KL.
1%
32°C
$83 KL.
1%
33°C
$115 KL.
8%
34°C
$158 KL.
26%
35°C
$377 KL.
49%
36°C
$89 KL.
16%
37°C
$53 KL.
3%
38°C
$112 KL.
2%
39°C or higher
$33 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF guidance, shows a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe sustaining clear skies and light winds ahead of August 12, favoring maximum surface heating near 34–36 °C in the Paris region. Urban heat-island effects and soil moisture deficits from the preceding early-August warmth further support these values. Ensemble spreads place the highest probability on 35 °C, with lower odds on 36 °C or above reflecting slight model disagreement on peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and Météo-France vigilance briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,938Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF guidance, shows a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe sustaining clear skies and light winds ahead of August 12, favoring maximum surface heating near 34–36 °C in the Paris region. Urban heat-island effects and soil moisture deficits from the preceding early-August warmth further support these values. Ensemble spreads place the highest probability on 35 °C, with lower odds on 36 °C or above reflecting slight model disagreement on peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and Météo-France vigilance briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,938Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF guidance, shows a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe sustaining clear skies and light winds ahead of August 12, favoring maximum surface heating near 34–36 °C in the Paris region. Urban heat-island effects and soil moisture deficits from the preceding early-August warmth further support these values. Ensemble spreads place the highest probability on 35 °C, with lower odds on 36 °C or above reflecting slight model disagreement on peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and Météo-France vigilance briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp