Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 62 percent of the vote in California's 28th congressional district, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican April Verlato. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of roughly D+15 and strong performance for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97.8 percent implied probability for a Democratic hold. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, supported by Chu's established fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition or redistricting changes. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national partisan shift or late-cycle disruption such as a major scandal or candidate withdrawal, none of which have materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$139,863 交易量
$139,863 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
98%
共和黨
<1%
$139,863 交易量
$139,863 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$58,193 交易量
98%
共和黨
$81,670 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 62 percent of the vote in California's 28th congressional district, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican April Verlato. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of roughly D+15 and strong performance for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97.8 percent implied probability for a Democratic hold. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, supported by Chu's established fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition or redistricting changes. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national partisan shift or late-cycle disruption such as a major scandal or candidate withdrawal, none of which have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$139,863結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 62 percent of the vote in California's 28th congressional district, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican April Verlato. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of roughly D+15 and strong performance for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97.8 percent implied probability for a Democratic hold. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, supported by Chu's established fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition or redistricting changes. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national partisan shift or late-cycle disruption such as a major scandal or candidate withdrawal, none of which have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$139,863結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Judy Chu advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 62 percent of the vote in California's 28th congressional district, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against Republican April Verlato. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook PVI of roughly D+15 and strong performance for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97.8 percent implied probability for a Democratic hold. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, supported by Chu's established fundraising edge and the absence of competitive opposition or redistricting changes. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national partisan shift or late-cycle disruption such as a major scandal or candidate withdrawal, none of which have materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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