Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 交易量
$41,501 交易量
2026-05-06
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 交易量
$41,501 交易量
2026-05-06
11°C or below
$343 交易量
No
12°C
$534 交易量
No
13°C
$777 交易量
No
14°C
$1,467 交易量
No
15°C
$3,875 交易量
No
16°C
$4,761 交易量
No
17°C
$8,597 交易量
Yes
18°C
$5,850 交易量
No
19°C
$8,027 交易量
No
20°C
$3,459 交易量
No
21°C or higher
$3,812 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
交易量
$41,501結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$41,501結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions