Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched top outcomes—21°C (33.5%), 22°C (29.0%), and 23°C or higher (27.5%)—for Milan's highest temperature at Malpensa Airport on April 4 reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 21°C, amid a building high-pressure ridge over northern Italy following recent rain, cold snaps, and snow. This setup favors subsidence inversions and clear skies, yielding above-climatological-average warmth (historical April highs ~17°C), but uncertainty arises from ensemble divergences: some members project lighter southerly winds and enhanced insolation for 23°C peaks, while others anticipate residual low clouds or boundary layer mixing capping at 21°C. ARPA Lombardia's recent bulletins align with 21-22°C; traders await morning soundings and updated short-range models for resolution-clarifying details.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Milan on April 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 4?
22°C 34%
21°C 33%
23°C or higher 27%
20°C 9%
$16,117 交易量
$16,117 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
9%
21°C
33%
22°C
34%
23°C or higher
27%
22°C 34%
21°C 33%
23°C or higher 27%
20°C 9%
$16,117 交易量
$16,117 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
9%
21°C
33%
22°C
34%
23°C or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched top outcomes—21°C (33.5%), 22°C (29.0%), and 23°C or higher (27.5%)—for Milan's highest temperature at Malpensa Airport on April 4 reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 21°C, amid a building high-pressure ridge over northern Italy following recent rain, cold snaps, and snow. This setup favors subsidence inversions and clear skies, yielding above-climatological-average warmth (historical April highs ~17°C), but uncertainty arises from ensemble divergences: some members project lighter southerly winds and enhanced insolation for 23°C peaks, while others anticipate residual low clouds or boundary layer mixing capping at 21°C. ARPA Lombardia's recent bulletins align with 21-22°C; traders await morning soundings and updated short-range models for resolution-clarifying details.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions