Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 6, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 27°C (25.5%) and 28°C (23.5%), differentiating from lower outcomes via expected post-frontal clearing. A recent INMET warning for showers and gusty winds through April 4 suggests a passing cold front, paving the way for high pressure dominance and sunnier conditions by Saturday, boosting potential for radiative heating to 28-29°C amid typical autumn highs averaging 26°C. Key variables include lingering cloud cover and light southerly winds, which could cap peaks at 26-27°C; daily model updates from INMET and NOAA will refine this ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月6日聖保羅的最高溫度?
4月6日聖保羅的最高溫度?
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 19%
26°C 16%
23°C或以下
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
16%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
19%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C或更高
1%
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
29°C 19%
26°C 16%
23°C或以下
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
16%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
19%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C或更高
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 2, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 6, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 27°C (25.5%) and 28°C (23.5%), differentiating from lower outcomes via expected post-frontal clearing. A recent INMET warning for showers and gusty winds through April 4 suggests a passing cold front, paving the way for high pressure dominance and sunnier conditions by Saturday, boosting potential for radiative heating to 28-29°C amid typical autumn highs averaging 26°C. Key variables include lingering cloud cover and light southerly winds, which could cap peaks at 26-27°C; daily model updates from INMET and NOAA will refine this ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions