Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest INMET weekly forecast (Informativo Meteorológico nº 13/2026) and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs in this range under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. Low humidity and light southeasterly winds favor clear skies and efficient solar heating above the April climatological average of 25–27°C, boosting implied probabilities for 29°C (32.5%) over 28°C (26%) and 30°C (20.5%). Differentiating factors include minor model divergences on afternoon cloud development and urban heat island amplification at official stations like Congonhas; new 12z model runs and April 3 observations could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
29°C 34%
28°C 26%
30°C 21%
27°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-04
25°C or below
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
26%
29°C
34%
30°C
21%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
28°C 26%
30°C 21%
27°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-04
25°C or below
$941 交易量
1%
26°C
$842 交易量
4%
27°C
$954 交易量
13%
28°C
$915 交易量
26%
29°C
$976 交易量
34%
30°C
$756 交易量
21%
31°C
$827 交易量
5%
32°C
$1,338 交易量
1%
33°C
$885 交易量
1%
34°C
$534 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$762 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest INMET weekly forecast (Informativo Meteorológico nº 13/2026) and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs in this range under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. Low humidity and light southeasterly winds favor clear skies and efficient solar heating above the April climatological average of 25–27°C, boosting implied probabilities for 29°C (32.5%) over 28°C (26%) and 30°C (20.5%). Differentiating factors include minor model divergences on afternoon cloud development and urban heat island amplification at official stations like Congonhas; new 12z model runs and April 3 observations could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
交易量
$9,730結束日期
2026-04-04市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest INMET weekly forecast (Informativo Meteorológico nº 13/2026) and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs in this range under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. Low humidity and light southeasterly winds favor clear skies and efficient solar heating above the April climatological average of 25–27°C, boosting implied probabilities for 29°C (32.5%) over 28°C (26%) and 30°C (20.5%). Differentiating factors include minor model divergences on afternoon cloud development and urban heat island amplification at official stations like Congonhas; new 12z model runs and April 3 observations could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,730結束日期
2026-04-04市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 28–30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest INMET weekly forecast (Informativo Meteorológico nº 13/2026) and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF showing daytime highs in this range under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. Low humidity and light southeasterly winds favor clear skies and efficient solar heating above the April climatological average of 25–27°C, boosting implied probabilities for 29°C (32.5%) over 28°C (26%) and 30°C (20.5%). Differentiating factors include minor model divergences on afternoon cloud development and urban heat island amplification at official stations like Congonhas; new 12z model runs and April 3 observations could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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