Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, with 15°C (25.5% implied probability) edging out 16°C (23.5%) and 17°C or higher (20.5%), driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-range guidance projecting morning rain tapering to partly cloudy conditions amid a passing frontal system. Today's southerly winds pushed highs near 20°C under mostly cloudy skies, but incoming precipitation and persistent cloud cover are expected to cap daytime heating, with model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF diverging by 2–3°C on peak warmth based on clearing timing. Historical early-April highs average 15–17°C at Incheon International Airport station, the market's resolution point; evening KMA updates and hourly observations will refine trader positioning before tomorrow's outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
15°C 26%
16°C 24%
17°C or higher 23.4%
14°C 19%
$68,870 交易量
$68,870 交易量
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
12%
14°C
19%
15°C
26%
16°C
24%
17°C or higher
23%
15°C 26%
16°C 24%
17°C or higher 23.4%
14°C 19%
$68,870 交易量
$68,870 交易量
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
12%
14°C
19%
15°C
26%
16°C
24%
17°C or higher
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, with 15°C (25.5% implied probability) edging out 16°C (23.5%) and 17°C or higher (20.5%), driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-range guidance projecting morning rain tapering to partly cloudy conditions amid a passing frontal system. Today's southerly winds pushed highs near 20°C under mostly cloudy skies, but incoming precipitation and persistent cloud cover are expected to cap daytime heating, with model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF diverging by 2–3°C on peak warmth based on clearing timing. Historical early-April highs average 15–17°C at Incheon International Airport station, the market's resolution point; evening KMA updates and hourly observations will refine trader positioning before tomorrow's outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions