Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich today at 95.7% implied probability, backed by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and short-term forecast guidance showing midday readings of 11°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, projecting a late-afternoon peak near 13-14°C at Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily maxima average 11-13°C amid typical spring transitional weather patterns featuring moderate insolation and low-level moisture. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS exhibit tight spreads supporting this positioning, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud buildup capping temps at 13°C or prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 15°C or higher, though current trajectories suggest low likelihood; real-time DWD hourly updates through evening will confirm the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?
14°C 97.4%
15°C or higher 4.4%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$94,541 交易量
$94,541 交易量
2026-04-03
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
97%
15°C or higher
4%
14°C 97.4%
15°C or higher 4.4%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$94,541 交易量
$94,541 交易量
2026-04-03
12°C
$20,493 交易量
<1%
13°C
$20,477 交易量
<1%
14°C
$9,073 交易量
97%
15°C or higher
$11,115 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich today at 95.7% implied probability, backed by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and short-term forecast guidance showing midday readings of 11°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, projecting a late-afternoon peak near 13-14°C at Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily maxima average 11-13°C amid typical spring transitional weather patterns featuring moderate insolation and low-level moisture. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS exhibit tight spreads supporting this positioning, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud buildup capping temps at 13°C or prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 15°C or higher, though current trajectories suggest low likelihood; real-time DWD hourly updates through evening will confirm the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
交易量
$94,541結束日期
2026-04-03市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ET已提議結果: No
爭議期
最終
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich today at 95.7% implied probability, backed by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and short-term forecast guidance showing midday readings of 11°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, projecting a late-afternoon peak near 13-14°C at Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily maxima average 11-13°C amid typical spring transitional weather patterns featuring moderate insolation and low-level moisture. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS exhibit tight spreads supporting this positioning, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud buildup capping temps at 13°C or prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 15°C or higher, though current trajectories suggest low likelihood; real-time DWD hourly updates through evening will confirm the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$94,541結束日期
2026-04-03市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ET已提議結果: No
爭議期
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 14°C in Munich today at 95.7% implied probability, backed by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) observations and short-term forecast guidance showing midday readings of 11°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, projecting a late-afternoon peak near 13-14°C at Munich Airport station—the market's resolution source. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily maxima average 11-13°C amid typical spring transitional weather patterns featuring moderate insolation and low-level moisture. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS exhibit tight spreads supporting this positioning, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud buildup capping temps at 13°C or prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 15°C or higher, though current trajectories suggest low likelihood; real-time DWD hourly updates through evening will confirm the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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