Traders overwhelmingly favor the 31°C outcome at 99.8% implied probability because official Central Weather Administration and AccuWeather guidance, combined with late-August subtropical climatology, consistently projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range for Taipei on August 24, 2026. Historical baselines show average August highs near 32°C at Songshan Airport, with monsoon flow and typical humidity supporting this narrow band rather than extremes. Heavy rain from regional systems introduced some cloud cover that could have suppressed readings, yet verified observations aligned precisely with the leading market resolution. The only realistic challenges would involve unforecasted intensification of precipitation or a sharp model shift in steering patterns altering local thermodynamics, though such deviations rarely exceed 1–2°C from consensus forecasts this close to the date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日臺北氣溫最高？
8月24日臺北氣溫最高？
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$169,478 交易量
$169,478 交易量
2026-08-24
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$169,478 交易量
$169,478 交易量
2026-08-24
22°C or below
$19,423 交易量
No
23°C
$2,836 交易量
No
24°C
$5,288 交易量
No
25°C
$7,023 交易量
No
26°C
$4,936 交易量
No
27°C
$12,656 交易量
No
28°C
$39,282 交易量
No
29°C
$25,479 交易量
No
30°C
$26,319 交易量
No
31°C
$14,495 交易量
Yes
32°C or higher
$11,741 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders overwhelmingly favor the 31°C outcome at 99.8% implied probability because official Central Weather Administration and AccuWeather guidance, combined with late-August subtropical climatology, consistently projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range for Taipei on August 24, 2026. Historical baselines show average August highs near 32°C at Songshan Airport, with monsoon flow and typical humidity supporting this narrow band rather than extremes. Heavy rain from regional systems introduced some cloud cover that could have suppressed readings, yet verified observations aligned precisely with the leading market resolution. The only realistic challenges would involve unforecasted intensification of precipitation or a sharp model shift in steering patterns altering local thermodynamics, though such deviations rarely exceed 1–2°C from consensus forecasts this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$169,478結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders overwhelmingly favor the 31°C outcome at 99.8% implied probability because official Central Weather Administration and AccuWeather guidance, combined with late-August subtropical climatology, consistently projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range for Taipei on August 24, 2026. Historical baselines show average August highs near 32°C at Songshan Airport, with monsoon flow and typical humidity supporting this narrow band rather than extremes. Heavy rain from regional systems introduced some cloud cover that could have suppressed readings, yet verified observations aligned precisely with the leading market resolution. The only realistic challenges would involve unforecasted intensification of precipitation or a sharp model shift in steering patterns altering local thermodynamics, though such deviations rarely exceed 1–2°C from consensus forecasts this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$169,478結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders overwhelmingly favor the 31°C outcome at 99.8% implied probability because official Central Weather Administration and AccuWeather guidance, combined with late-August subtropical climatology, consistently projected daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range for Taipei on August 24, 2026. Historical baselines show average August highs near 32°C at Songshan Airport, with monsoon flow and typical humidity supporting this narrow band rather than extremes. Heavy rain from regional systems introduced some cloud cover that could have suppressed readings, yet verified observations aligned precisely with the leading market resolution. The only realistic challenges would involve unforecasted intensification of precipitation or a sharp model shift in steering patterns altering local thermodynamics, though such deviations rarely exceed 1–2°C from consensus forecasts this close to the date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions