Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-term forecasts for Tokyo's April 5 high temperature, with models clustering around 21–22°C amid persistent southerly flows advecting warmer air from subtropical regions during early spring. Recent JMA updates note above-average warmth over the past week—highs in the upper teens Celsius—driven by weak high-pressure ridging, boosting implied probabilities for 22°C (29.5%) and 21°C (25%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and scattered showers, which could cap peaks at 20°C (18.5%) by reducing solar insolation, versus clearer skies pushing toward 23°C or higher (18.5%); historical April 5 averages hover near 20°C. New JMA advisories and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月5日東京氣溫最高？
4月5日東京氣溫最高？
22°C 28%
21°C 25%
23°C或以上 19%
20°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
9%
20°C
16%
21°C
25%
22°C
28%
23°C或以上
19%
22°C 28%
21°C 25%
23°C或以上 19%
20°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
13°C或以下
$634 交易量
<1%
14°C
$634 交易量
1%
15°C
$592 交易量
<1%
16°C
$633 交易量
1%
17°C
$550 交易量
2%
18°C
$488 交易量
5%
19°C
$315 交易量
9%
20°C
$601 交易量
16%
21°C
$403 交易量
25%
22°C
$442 交易量
28%
23°C或以上
$819 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-term forecasts for Tokyo's April 5 high temperature, with models clustering around 21–22°C amid persistent southerly flows advecting warmer air from subtropical regions during early spring. Recent JMA updates note above-average warmth over the past week—highs in the upper teens Celsius—driven by weak high-pressure ridging, boosting implied probabilities for 22°C (29.5%) and 21°C (25%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and scattered showers, which could cap peaks at 20°C (18.5%) by reducing solar insolation, versus clearer skies pushing toward 23°C or higher (18.5%); historical April 5 averages hover near 20°C. New JMA advisories and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
交易量
$6,069結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-term forecasts for Tokyo's April 5 high temperature, with models clustering around 21–22°C amid persistent southerly flows advecting warmer air from subtropical regions during early spring. Recent JMA updates note above-average warmth over the past week—highs in the upper teens Celsius—driven by weak high-pressure ridging, boosting implied probabilities for 22°C (29.5%) and 21°C (25%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and scattered showers, which could cap peaks at 20°C (18.5%) by reducing solar insolation, versus clearer skies pushing toward 23°C or higher (18.5%); historical April 5 averages hover near 20°C. New JMA advisories and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$6,069結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-term forecasts for Tokyo's April 5 high temperature, with models clustering around 21–22°C amid persistent southerly flows advecting warmer air from subtropical regions during early spring. Recent JMA updates note above-average warmth over the past week—highs in the upper teens Celsius—driven by weak high-pressure ridging, boosting implied probabilities for 22°C (29.5%) and 21°C (25%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and scattered showers, which could cap peaks at 20°C (18.5%) by reducing solar insolation, versus clearer skies pushing toward 23°C or higher (18.5%); historical April 5 averages hover near 20°C. New JMA advisories and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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