Official forecasts from agencies including China's meteorological service and international models project an overnight low of 24°C for Beijing on August 21 amid typical late-summer conditions with daytime highs near 31°C and possible thunderstorms. This consensus stems from consistent model runs showing limited cooling overnight due to high humidity, light winds, and residual heat from recent days, aligning closely with observed minimums in the 22–25°C range. Traders assign 98.5% implied probability to 24°C because real-time data and ensemble predictions show minimal variance around this threshold. A realistic shift could occur only with an unforecasted cold front or heavier nocturnal rainfall enhancing radiative cooling, though current steering patterns and stability make such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日北京最低溫度？
8月21日北京最低溫度？
24°C 100.0%
18℃或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$3,271 交易量
$3,271 交易量
2026-08-21
18℃或以下
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
是
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C或以上
否
24°C 100.0%
18℃或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$3,271 交易量
$3,271 交易量
2026-08-21
18℃或以下
$140 交易量
否
19°C
$127 交易量
否
20°C
$612 交易量
否
21°C
$187 交易量
否
22°C
$482 交易量
否
23°C
$498 交易量
否
24°C
$860 交易量
是
25°C
$150 交易量
否
26°C
$25 交易量
否
27°C
$95 交易量
否
28°C或以上
$95 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including China's meteorological service and international models project an overnight low of 24°C for Beijing on August 21 amid typical late-summer conditions with daytime highs near 31°C and possible thunderstorms. This consensus stems from consistent model runs showing limited cooling overnight due to high humidity, light winds, and residual heat from recent days, aligning closely with observed minimums in the 22–25°C range. Traders assign 98.5% implied probability to 24°C because real-time data and ensemble predictions show minimal variance around this threshold. A realistic shift could occur only with an unforecasted cold front or heavier nocturnal rainfall enhancing radiative cooling, though current steering patterns and stability make such changes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
交易量
$3,271結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including China's meteorological service and international models project an overnight low of 24°C for Beijing on August 21 amid typical late-summer conditions with daytime highs near 31°C and possible thunderstorms. This consensus stems from consistent model runs showing limited cooling overnight due to high humidity, light winds, and residual heat from recent days, aligning closely with observed minimums in the 22–25°C range. Traders assign 98.5% implied probability to 24°C because real-time data and ensemble predictions show minimal variance around this threshold. A realistic shift could occur only with an unforecasted cold front or heavier nocturnal rainfall enhancing radiative cooling, though current steering patterns and stability make such changes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,271結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Official forecasts from agencies including China's meteorological service and international models project an overnight low of 24°C for Beijing on August 21 amid typical late-summer conditions with daytime highs near 31°C and possible thunderstorms. This consensus stems from consistent model runs showing limited cooling overnight due to high humidity, light winds, and residual heat from recent days, aligning closely with observed minimums in the 22–25°C range. Traders assign 98.5% implied probability to 24°C because real-time data and ensemble predictions show minimal variance around this threshold. A realistic shift could occur only with an unforecasted cold front or heavier nocturnal rainfall enhancing radiative cooling, though current steering patterns and stability make such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions