Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses show Beijing's September 4 minimum temperature most likely falling between 18–22°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–34°C. Light southerly winds and moderate humidity levels limit rapid temperature drops, while the absence of strong frontal systems or significant precipitation keeps conditions stable. Trader consensus around 15–17°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island effects, with historical September averages near 15°C providing context for the tight probabilities. Updated short-range model runs and official observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日北京最低溫度？
9月4日北京最低溫度？
16°C 44%
15°C 41%
14°C 37%
13°C或以下 <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
13°C或以下
1%
14°C
37%
15°C
41%
16°C
44%
17°C
55%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C或以上
<1%
16°C 44%
15°C 41%
14°C 37%
13°C或以下 <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
13°C或以下
$260 交易量
1%
14°C
$0 交易量
37%
15°C
$0 交易量
41%
16°C
$0 交易量
44%
17°C
$11 交易量
55%
18°C
$139 交易量
<1%
19°C
$185 交易量
<1%
20°C
$45 交易量
<1%
21°C
$81 交易量
<1%
22°C
$81 交易量
<1%
23°C或以上
$731 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses show Beijing's September 4 minimum temperature most likely falling between 18–22°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–34°C. Light southerly winds and moderate humidity levels limit rapid temperature drops, while the absence of strong frontal systems or significant precipitation keeps conditions stable. Trader consensus around 15–17°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island effects, with historical September averages near 15°C providing context for the tight probabilities. Updated short-range model runs and official observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,532結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses show Beijing's September 4 minimum temperature most likely falling between 18–22°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–34°C. Light southerly winds and moderate humidity levels limit rapid temperature drops, while the absence of strong frontal systems or significant precipitation keeps conditions stable. Trader consensus around 15–17°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island effects, with historical September averages near 15°C providing context for the tight probabilities. Updated short-range model runs and official observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,532結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses show Beijing's September 4 minimum temperature most likely falling between 18–22°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–34°C. Light southerly winds and moderate humidity levels limit rapid temperature drops, while the absence of strong frontal systems or significant precipitation keeps conditions stable. Trader consensus around 15–17°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer cooling rates and urban heat-island effects, with historical September averages near 15°C providing context for the tight probabilities. Updated short-range model runs and official observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions