High-stakes House competition viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration, combined with Democratic leads of 6-11 points on the generic ballot and strong primary turnout in Democratic contests, is sustaining trader expectations for turnout above typical midterm levels. Primary participation signals, modest youth registration gains, and expanded mail and early voting infrastructure point to elevated mobilization, particularly among opposition voters. Narrow Republican majorities, redistricting shifts, and economic concerns such as inflation and housing costs introduce uncertainty that could either consolidate or suppress participation depending on base enthusiasm and get-out-the-vote execution through November. Trader consensus centers on 115-125 million votes as the most probable range.