Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI and resilient labor market data have shifted trader sentiment toward a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike, with futures pricing an 85% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot already lifted the median 2026 year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting elevated inflation readings near 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across hike sequences underscore uncertainty over follow-through moves in October/November and December, hinging on incoming inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls, and any signals from the September statement or Summary of Economic Projections. Markets continue to price roughly 25-50 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息-暂停-加息 26%
加息-加息-暂停 21%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
连加三次息 19%
$26,437 交易量
$26,437 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
26%
加息–暂停–暂停
19%
连加三次息
19%
加息-加息-暂停
21%
暂停–暂停–加息
2%
连续三次按兵不动
11%
暂停–加息–加息
4%
暂停–加息–暂停
2%
其他
7%
加息-暂停-加息 26%
加息-加息-暂停 21%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
连加三次息 19%
$26,437 交易量
$26,437 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$1,796 交易量
26%
加息–暂停–暂停
$1,632 交易量
19%
连加三次息
$1,611 交易量
19%
加息-加息-暂停
$1,769 交易量
21%
暂停–暂停–加息
$1,604 交易量
2%
连续三次按兵不动
$14,765 交易量
11%
暂停–加息–加息
$1,300 交易量
4%
暂停–加息–暂停
$1,572 交易量
2%
其他
$388 交易量
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August core CPI and resilient labor market data have shifted trader sentiment toward a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike, with futures pricing an 85% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot already lifted the median 2026 year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting elevated inflation readings near 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across hike sequences underscore uncertainty over follow-through moves in October/November and December, hinging on incoming inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls, and any signals from the September statement or Summary of Economic Projections. Markets continue to price roughly 25-50 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$26,437结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August core CPI and resilient labor market data have shifted trader sentiment toward a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike, with futures pricing an 85% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot already lifted the median 2026 year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting elevated inflation readings near 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across hike sequences underscore uncertainty over follow-through moves in October/November and December, hinging on incoming inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls, and any signals from the September statement or Summary of Economic Projections. Markets continue to price roughly 25-50 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$26,437结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent hotter-than-expected August core CPI and resilient labor market data have shifted trader sentiment toward a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike, with futures pricing an 85% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC’s June dot plot already lifted the median 2026 year-end funds rate projection to 3.8%, reflecting elevated inflation readings near 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities across hike sequences underscore uncertainty over follow-through moves in October/November and December, hinging on incoming inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls, and any signals from the September statement or Summary of Economic Projections. Markets continue to price roughly 25-50 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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