Florida's Republican lean, combined with Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent seeking election to complete Marco Rubio's term, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the November 2026 special election. Recent University of North Florida polling shows Moody ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Nixon and Alex Vindman by 8-10 points, reflecting the state's partisan voting patterns and limited Democratic path in this contest. The August 18 primary will narrow the Democratic field ahead of the general election. While the current implied probability exceeds 90 percent for Republicans, unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high opposition turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$62,500 交易量
$62,500 交易量
共和党
91%
民主党
10%
$62,500 交易量
$62,500 交易量
共和党
$35,485 交易量
91%
民主党
$27,015 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean, combined with Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent seeking election to complete Marco Rubio's term, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the November 2026 special election. Recent University of North Florida polling shows Moody ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Nixon and Alex Vindman by 8-10 points, reflecting the state's partisan voting patterns and limited Democratic path in this contest. The August 18 primary will narrow the Democratic field ahead of the general election. While the current implied probability exceeds 90 percent for Republicans, unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high opposition turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
交易量
$62,500市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean, combined with Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent seeking election to complete Marco Rubio's term, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the November 2026 special election. Recent University of North Florida polling shows Moody ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Nixon and Alex Vindman by 8-10 points, reflecting the state's partisan voting patterns and limited Democratic path in this contest. The August 18 primary will narrow the Democratic field ahead of the general election. While the current implied probability exceeds 90 percent for Republicans, unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high opposition turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$62,500市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's Republican lean, combined with Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent seeking election to complete Marco Rubio's term, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the November 2026 special election. Recent University of North Florida polling shows Moody ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Nixon and Alex Vindman by 8-10 points, reflecting the state's partisan voting patterns and limited Democratic path in this contest. The August 18 primary will narrow the Democratic field ahead of the general election. While the current implied probability exceeds 90 percent for Republicans, unexpected national shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high opposition turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题