Florida's Republican lean and Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent drive trader consensus toward an 82% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 special election. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody, the former state attorney general, to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio upon his confirmation as secretary of state. Recent polls, including Emerson College and others from March through May 2026, show Moody leading hypothetical Democratic opponents such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by margins of 3 to 11 points. The August 18 primaries will finalize nominees, yet no developments in the past month have shifted the state's structural advantage or Moody's polling edge. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in Florida federal contests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$39,281 交易量
$39,281 交易量
共和党
82%
民主党
17%
$39,281 交易量
$39,281 交易量
共和党
$20,148 交易量
82%
民主党
$19,133 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean and Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent drive trader consensus toward an 82% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 special election. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody, the former state attorney general, to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio upon his confirmation as secretary of state. Recent polls, including Emerson College and others from March through May 2026, show Moody leading hypothetical Democratic opponents such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by margins of 3 to 11 points. The August 18 primaries will finalize nominees, yet no developments in the past month have shifted the state's structural advantage or Moody's polling edge. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in Florida federal contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
交易量
$39,281市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean and Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent drive trader consensus toward an 82% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 special election. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody, the former state attorney general, to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio upon his confirmation as secretary of state. Recent polls, including Emerson College and others from March through May 2026, show Moody leading hypothetical Democratic opponents such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by margins of 3 to 11 points. The August 18 primaries will finalize nominees, yet no developments in the past month have shifted the state's structural advantage or Moody's polling edge. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in Florida federal contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$39,281市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's Republican lean and Ashley Moody's position as the appointed incumbent drive trader consensus toward an 82% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 special election. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody, the former state attorney general, to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio upon his confirmation as secretary of state. Recent polls, including Emerson College and others from March through May 2026, show Moody leading hypothetical Democratic opponents such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by margins of 3 to 11 points. The August 18 primaries will finalize nominees, yet no developments in the past month have shifted the state's structural advantage or Moody's polling edge. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in Florida federal contests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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