Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
74-75°F 34%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 20%
71°F or below 12.3%
$16,130 交易量
$16,130 交易量
2026-04-04
71°F or below
12%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
34%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 34%
76-77°F 22%
72-73°F 20%
71°F or below 12.3%
$16,130 交易量
$16,130 交易量
2026-04-04
71°F or below
$546 交易量
12%
72-73°F
$741 交易量
20%
74-75°F
$1,046 交易量
34%
76-77°F
$981 交易量
22%
78-79°F
$631 交易量
9%
80-81°F
$580 交易量
8%
82-83°F
$1,131 交易量
3%
84-85°F
$2,718 交易量
<1%
86-87°F
$2,985 交易量
<1%
88-89°F
$2,214 交易量
<1%
90°F or higher
$2,558 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$16,130结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,130结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFollowing the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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