Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models projecting Austin's April 5 high temperature in the 68-73°F range, driven by a multi-day storm system that has brought heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover to Central Texas following March's record heat. Recent developments, including severe storms through April 3-4, have shifted steering patterns to introduce cooler post-frontal air masses with northeast winds and 50-60% shower probabilities, suppressing daytime heating below the climatological April average of 79°F. Closely matched implied probabilities for 68-71°F versus slightly lower odds for 72-73°F stem from model disagreements on afternoon clearing—GFS leans cooler with lingering low clouds, while ECMWF shows minor warm biases. New observational data and 12z model runs on April 4 could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 20%
66-67°F 18%
72-73°F 14%
$11,953 交易量
$11,953 交易量
2026-04-05
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
18%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
18%
74°F or higher
8%
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 20%
66-67°F 18%
72-73°F 14%
$11,953 交易量
$11,953 交易量
2026-04-05
55°F or below
$3,731 交易量
<1%
56-57°F
$2,360 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$691 交易量
2%
60-61°F
$469 交易量
3%
62-63°F
$504 交易量
3%
64-65°F
$322 交易量
6%
66-67°F
$770 交易量
18%
68-69°F
$396 交易量
20%
70-71°F
$492 交易量
22%
72-73°F
$545 交易量
18%
74°F or higher
$1,670 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models projecting Austin's April 5 high temperature in the 68-73°F range, driven by a multi-day storm system that has brought heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover to Central Texas following March's record heat. Recent developments, including severe storms through April 3-4, have shifted steering patterns to introduce cooler post-frontal air masses with northeast winds and 50-60% shower probabilities, suppressing daytime heating below the climatological April average of 79°F. Closely matched implied probabilities for 68-71°F versus slightly lower odds for 72-73°F stem from model disagreements on afternoon clearing—GFS leans cooler with lingering low clouds, while ECMWF shows minor warm biases. New observational data and 12z model runs on April 4 could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$11,953结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models projecting Austin's April 5 high temperature in the 68-73°F range, driven by a multi-day storm system that has brought heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover to Central Texas following March's record heat. Recent developments, including severe storms through April 3-4, have shifted steering patterns to introduce cooler post-frontal air masses with northeast winds and 50-60% shower probabilities, suppressing daytime heating below the climatological April average of 79°F. Closely matched implied probabilities for 68-71°F versus slightly lower odds for 72-73°F stem from model disagreements on afternoon clearing—GFS leans cooler with lingering low clouds, while ECMWF shows minor warm biases. New observational data and 12z model runs on April 4 could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$11,953结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models projecting Austin's April 5 high temperature in the 68-73°F range, driven by a multi-day storm system that has brought heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover to Central Texas following March's record heat. Recent developments, including severe storms through April 3-4, have shifted steering patterns to introduce cooler post-frontal air masses with northeast winds and 50-60% shower probabilities, suppressing daytime heating below the climatological April average of 79°F. Closely matched implied probabilities for 68-71°F versus slightly lower odds for 72-73°F stem from model disagreements on afternoon clearing—GFS leans cooler with lingering low clouds, while ECMWF shows minor warm biases. New observational data and 12z model runs on April 4 could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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