Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4月6日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
4月6日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
15°C 32%
14℃ 26%
16°C 23%
17°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
11°C或以下
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
9%
14℃
24%
15°C
32%
16°C
23%
17°C
22%
18°C
11%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C或更高
3%
15°C 32%
14℃ 26%
16°C 23%
17°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
11°C或以下
$490 交易量
1%
12°C
$1,242 交易量
2%
13°C
$91 交易量
9%
14℃
$103 交易量
24%
15°C
$144 交易量
32%
16°C
$120 交易量
23%
17°C
$125 交易量
22%
18°C
$81 交易量
11%
19°C
$76 交易量
5%
20°C
$94 交易量
1%
21°C或更高
$105 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
交易量
$2,670结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,670结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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