Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Madrid’s September 7 peak near 36–37 °C under clear skies, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and light southwesterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating. Low humidity (15–25 %) and minimal cloud cover further support efficient surface warming, while climatological September maxima average 28–30 °C, making this episode notably above normal yet below historical extremes. Traders have priced 37 °C and 38 °C as the dominant outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no major model shift has emerged in the past 48 hours. Final NHC-style or AEMET guidance updates on September 6–7 could still nudge the exact maximum if boundary-layer winds or residual moisture change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月7日马德里最高温度？
9月7日马德里最高温度？
37°C 55%
38°C 41%
36°C 5%
35°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
5%
37°C
55%
38°C
41%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C或更高
<1%
37°C 55%
38°C 41%
36°C 5%
35°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
35°C
$0 交易量
4%
36°C
$33 交易量
5%
37°C
$417 交易量
55%
38°C
$79 交易量
41%
39°C
$29 交易量
3%
40°C
$0 交易量
2%
41°C
$0 交易量
1%
42°C
$33 交易量
<1%
43°C
$33 交易量
<1%
44°C或更高
$33 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Madrid’s September 7 peak near 36–37 °C under clear skies, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and light southwesterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating. Low humidity (15–25 %) and minimal cloud cover further support efficient surface warming, while climatological September maxima average 28–30 °C, making this episode notably above normal yet below historical extremes. Traders have priced 37 °C and 38 °C as the dominant outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no major model shift has emerged in the past 48 hours. Final NHC-style or AEMET guidance updates on September 6–7 could still nudge the exact maximum if boundary-layer winds or residual moisture change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$657结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Madrid’s September 7 peak near 36–37 °C under clear skies, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and light southwesterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating. Low humidity (15–25 %) and minimal cloud cover further support efficient surface warming, while climatological September maxima average 28–30 °C, making this episode notably above normal yet below historical extremes. Traders have priced 37 °C and 38 °C as the dominant outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no major model shift has emerged in the past 48 hours. Final NHC-style or AEMET guidance updates on September 6–7 could still nudge the exact maximum if boundary-layer winds or residual moisture change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$657结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Madrid’s September 7 peak near 36–37 °C under clear skies, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and light southwesterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating. Low humidity (15–25 %) and minimal cloud cover further support efficient surface warming, while climatological September maxima average 28–30 °C, making this episode notably above normal yet below historical extremes. Traders have priced 37 °C and 38 °C as the dominant outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no major model shift has emerged in the past 48 hours. Final NHC-style or AEMET guidance updates on September 6–7 could still nudge the exact maximum if boundary-layer winds or residual moisture change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题