Trader consensus on Taipei's March 27 high temperature tilts toward 21–24°C (combined ~90% implied probability), driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) short-range forecasts projecting a peak of 23°C under mild northeasterly flows and partial cloud cover typical of Taiwan's spring transition. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—ECMWF leans cooler at 22°C due to persistent low-level moisture suppressing diurnal heating, while GFS variants nudge toward 24°C amid urban heat island effects in Taipei. Historical March 27 averages hover at 23°C, but recent cold front remnants cap extremes below 26°C (10.5% odds), with final resolution hinging on Songshan station observations amid 1–2°C forecast uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
21°C or below 28%
22°C 22%
23°C 21%
24°C 19%
21°C or below
25%
22°C
24%
23°C
21%
24°C
19%
25°C
14%
26°C
10%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
21°C or below 28%
22°C 22%
23°C 21%
24°C 19%
21°C or below
25%
22°C
24%
23°C
21%
24°C
19%
25°C
14%
26°C
10%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 23, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Taipei's March 27 high temperature tilts toward 21–24°C (combined ~90% implied probability), driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) short-range forecasts projecting a peak of 23°C under mild northeasterly flows and partial cloud cover typical of Taiwan's spring transition. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—ECMWF leans cooler at 22°C due to persistent low-level moisture suppressing diurnal heating, while GFS variants nudge toward 24°C amid urban heat island effects in Taipei. Historical March 27 averages hover at 23°C, but recent cold front remnants cap extremes below 26°C (10.5% odds), with final resolution hinging on Songshan station observations amid 1–2°C forecast uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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