Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 交易量
$87,397 交易量
2026-04-02
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 交易量
$87,397 交易量
2026-04-02
6°C or below
$6,790 交易量
No
7°C
$1,803 交易量
No
8°C
$4,100 交易量
No
9°C
$3,437 交易量
No
10°C
$3,187 交易量
No
11°C
$3,838 交易量
No
12°C
$8,268 交易量
No
13°C
$23,004 交易量
No
14°C
$10,591 交易量
Yes
15°C
$10,672 交易量
No
16°C or higher
$11,707 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
交易量
$87,397结束日期
2026-04-02市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$87,397结束日期
2026-04-02市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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