Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Warsaw's August 24 maximum will likely peak near 19–20°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and modest wind speeds are limiting diurnal heating compared to clearer analogs, while low precipitation chances reduce evaporative cooling effects. Model spread remains modest but sufficient to sustain near-even implied probabilities, with 21°C requiring stronger insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing that current guidance does not strongly support. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify any late adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月24日华沙的最高温度？
8月24日华沙的最高温度？
20°C 37%
19°C 32%
21°C 15%
18°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
6%
18°C
12%
19°C
32%
20°C
37%
21°C
15%
22°C
4%
23°C
5%
24°C
4%
25°C或更高
2%
20°C 37%
19°C 32%
21°C 15%
18°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
$5 交易量
1%
16°C
$5 交易量
1%
17°C
$35 交易量
6%
18°C
$45 交易量
12%
19°C
$96 交易量
32%
20°C
$48 交易量
37%
21°C
$10 交易量
15%
22°C
$5 交易量
4%
23°C
$10 交易量
5%
24°C
$5 交易量
4%
25°C或更高
$5 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Warsaw's August 24 maximum will likely peak near 19–20°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and modest wind speeds are limiting diurnal heating compared to clearer analogs, while low precipitation chances reduce evaporative cooling effects. Model spread remains modest but sufficient to sustain near-even implied probabilities, with 21°C requiring stronger insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing that current guidance does not strongly support. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify any late adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Warsaw's August 24 maximum will likely peak near 19–20°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and modest wind speeds are limiting diurnal heating compared to clearer analogs, while low precipitation chances reduce evaporative cooling effects. Model spread remains modest but sufficient to sustain near-even implied probabilities, with 21°C requiring stronger insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing that current guidance does not strongly support. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify any late adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate Warsaw's August 24 maximum will likely peak near 19–20°C under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, creating the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and modest wind speeds are limiting diurnal heating compared to clearer analogs, while low precipitation chances reduce evaporative cooling effects. Model spread remains modest but sufficient to sustain near-even implied probabilities, with 21°C requiring stronger insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing that current guidance does not strongly support. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify any late adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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