Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 交易量
$121,380 交易量
2026-04-25
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 交易量
$121,380 交易量
2026-04-25
9°C or below
$2,488 交易量
No
10°C
$2,677 交易量
No
11°C
$5,245 交易量
No
12°C
$3,556 交易量
No
13°C
$4,626 交易量
No
14°C
$10,893 交易量
No
15°C
$31,486 交易量
No
16°C
$16,644 交易量
Yes
17°C
$23,284 交易量
No
18°C
$11,824 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$8,658 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
交易量
$121,380结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$121,380结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题