Latest forecasts from European models indicate overnight lows in Amsterdam on August 22 clustering near 13–14°C, driven by moderate westerly flow off the North Sea, high humidity, and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology, where average minimums range 12–14°C, but subtle differences in boundary-layer stability and urban heat retention could shift the recorded low by 1°C. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 13°C and 14°C outcomes because ensemble spreads remain tight yet acknowledge resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any clearing skies or localized wind shifts before dawn. Updated guidance from national meteorological services will refine the precise minimum ahead of market close.