Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the closely matched implied probabilities for a 20°C or 25°C low in Istanbul on August 26. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS shows a broad spread in nocturnal minimum temperatures, driven by variable cloud cover, wind speeds from the Sea of Marmara, and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Late-summer climatology places typical overnight lows near 20–22°C, but small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or radiative cooling can easily move the outcome across resolution thresholds. Fresh model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月26日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
8月26日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
20°C 88%
25°C 88%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
17°C or below
45%
18°C
50%
19°C
50%
20°C
88%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
50%
25°C
88%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
45%
20°C 88%
25°C 88%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
17°C or below
$0 交易量
45%
18°C
$0 交易量
50%
19°C
$0 交易量
50%
20°C
$0 交易量
88%
21°C
$0 交易量
27%
22°C
$0 交易量
27%
23°C
$0 交易量
27%
24°C
$0 交易量
50%
25°C
$0 交易量
88%
26°C
$0 交易量
1%
27°C or higher
$0 交易量
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the closely matched implied probabilities for a 20°C or 25°C low in Istanbul on August 26. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS shows a broad spread in nocturnal minimum temperatures, driven by variable cloud cover, wind speeds from the Sea of Marmara, and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Late-summer climatology places typical overnight lows near 20–22°C, but small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or radiative cooling can easily move the outcome across resolution thresholds. Fresh model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the closely matched implied probabilities for a 20°C or 25°C low in Istanbul on August 26. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS shows a broad spread in nocturnal minimum temperatures, driven by variable cloud cover, wind speeds from the Sea of Marmara, and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Late-summer climatology places typical overnight lows near 20–22°C, but small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or radiative cooling can easily move the outcome across resolution thresholds. Fresh model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the closely matched implied probabilities for a 20°C or 25°C low in Istanbul on August 26. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS shows a broad spread in nocturnal minimum temperatures, driven by variable cloud cover, wind speeds from the Sea of Marmara, and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Late-summer climatology places typical overnight lows near 20–22°C, but small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or radiative cooling can easily move the outcome across resolution thresholds. Fresh model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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