Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to overnight lows near 9–11°C in Moscow on September 19 under southwesterly flow, moderate humidity, and variable cloud cover with limited precipitation risk. This positions the outcome squarely between the market's leading 3°C-or-below and 13°C-or-higher bins, both near 50% implied probability, while the 20% prices on 4–12°C reflect residual spread across ensemble members and potential for minor forecast adjustments before the 24-hour window closes. Daytime highs in the mid-teens further support overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud and wind effects rather than sharp cold-air advection. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum, with traders weighting official station observations against historical September climatology that averages lows near 8°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月19日莫斯科最低气温？
9月19日莫斯科最低气温？
13°C或更高 83%
4°C 40%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-19
3°C或以下
14%
4°C
40%
5°C
40%
6°C
40%
7°C
40%
8℃
26%
9°C
24%
10°C
22%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C或更高
83%
13°C或更高 83%
4°C 40%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-19
3°C或以下
$0 交易量
14%
4°C
$0 交易量
40%
5°C
$0 交易量
40%
6°C
$0 交易量
40%
7°C
$0 交易量
40%
8℃
$0 交易量
26%
9°C
$0 交易量
24%
10°C
$0 交易量
22%
11°C
$0 交易量
40%
12°C
$0 交易量
40%
13°C或更高
$0 交易量
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to overnight lows near 9–11°C in Moscow on September 19 under southwesterly flow, moderate humidity, and variable cloud cover with limited precipitation risk. This positions the outcome squarely between the market's leading 3°C-or-below and 13°C-or-higher bins, both near 50% implied probability, while the 20% prices on 4–12°C reflect residual spread across ensemble members and potential for minor forecast adjustments before the 24-hour window closes. Daytime highs in the mid-teens further support overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud and wind effects rather than sharp cold-air advection. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum, with traders weighting official station observations against historical September climatology that averages lows near 8°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-19市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to overnight lows near 9–11°C in Moscow on September 19 under southwesterly flow, moderate humidity, and variable cloud cover with limited precipitation risk. This positions the outcome squarely between the market's leading 3°C-or-below and 13°C-or-higher bins, both near 50% implied probability, while the 20% prices on 4–12°C reflect residual spread across ensemble members and potential for minor forecast adjustments before the 24-hour window closes. Daytime highs in the mid-teens further support overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud and wind effects rather than sharp cold-air advection. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum, with traders weighting official station observations against historical September climatology that averages lows near 8°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-19市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to overnight lows near 9–11°C in Moscow on September 19 under southwesterly flow, moderate humidity, and variable cloud cover with limited precipitation risk. This positions the outcome squarely between the market's leading 3°C-or-below and 13°C-or-higher bins, both near 50% implied probability, while the 20% prices on 4–12°C reflect residual spread across ensemble members and potential for minor forecast adjustments before the 24-hour window closes. Daytime highs in the mid-teens further support overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud and wind effects rather than sharp cold-air advection. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum, with traders weighting official station observations against historical September climatology that averages lows near 8°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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