Recent forecast models from agencies like Météo-France and the Met Office indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 21 likely falling between 14–16°C, driven by partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Clearer intervals promote greater heat loss from the surface, while higher humidity and urban heat island effects from the city’s built environment typically moderate lows by 1–2°C compared to rural surroundings. Ensemble predictions show modest spread due to variable shower timing, keeping 15°C as the modal outcome in trader assessments while 14°C and 16°C remain competitive. Historical August averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, with resolution depending on official minimum readings at central stations before midnight.